According to the GMK Center study "Contribution of the MMC to the Ukrainian Economy 2025," Ukraine's mining and metallurgical sector continues to lose production and economic weight under the influence of war, logistical constraints, and foreign trade pressure. In 2025, steel smelting in the country decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 7.4 million tons, while the sector's contribution to GDP fell to 5.5%, compared to 10.3% in 2021. The study also records a weakening of export positions, an increasing import presence in the domestic market, and new risks associated with the full implementation of the CBAM mechanism in the EU.
Key Indicators Point to Structural Weakening of the Industry
Steel production volume in 2025 remains 65.4% lower than pre-war levels when nine metallurgical enterprises were operating in Ukraine. Currently, only six such sites function in the controlled territory, limiting the potential for a rapid recovery in output. The reduction in steel and iron ore production has directly influenced the decline of the MMC's share in the national economy.
A specific blow to the supply chain was the halt of coking coal mining in Pokrovsk. This enterprise previously supplied 66% of the domestic market in 2024; its loss forced Ukraine to sharply increase coking coal imports. In 2025, foreign coal purchases rose by 91.6% year-on-year, increasing the cost of metallurgical production and dependence on external resources.
The export component is also weakening. In monetary terms, MMC product exports in 2025 were 72.1% lower than in 2021 and 3.1% lower than in 2024. Simultaneously, Ukrainian producers are losing part of their traditional markets due to active competition from Chinese and Russian suppliers in MENA, Turkey, and other regions.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the domestic market, the trend looks equally challenging: steel imports rose by 32.1% in 2025, and in January–February 2026, by another 19.0% year-on-year. The share of imports in steel consumption reached 40% by the end of 2025 and climbed to 50% in the first two months of 2026. This implies intensified price and assortment competition, as well as higher requirements for supply channel stability for Ukrainian industrial consumers.
In such conditions, supplier reliability, price predictability, and the availability of certified products become critical for enterprises. winox.ua, which operates in the metal rolling, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals segment, serves as a practical partner for businesses aiming to reduce risks of production interruptions. Amidst rising imports and market instability, winox.ua ensures consistent deliveries and helps clients plan procurement considering real market constraints.
For B2B consumers, this is especially important at a time when the country's metallurgical base is narrowing and dependence on external resources is growing. In these circumstances, companies that diversify procurement in advance and work with suppliers capable of maintaining supply continuity will prevail. Consequently, the market is increasingly shifting from situational purchases to strategic inventory and contract management.
CBAM and EU Market Concentration Amplify Strategic Risks
In 2025, the European Union effectively remained the only key sales market for Ukrainian steelmakers. The EU accounted for 50% of all steel produced in Ukraine, indicating a critical dependence on a single export destination. Without full geographical diversification, any regulatory changes in Europe directly affect the viability of the entire industry.
Therefore, the full implementation of CBAM in 2026 creates a systemic risk for the Ukrainian MMC. If Ukrainian producers do not receive exemptions or compensatory mechanisms, their competitiveness in the European market may deteriorate further. Given that the USA, EU, Canada, UK, India, and China are already protecting their own metallurgical sectors through subsidies, trade barriers, and energy support, Ukrainian industrial policy requires more decisive tools to preserve its base metallurgy.
For related sectors such as machinery, construction, energy, and metalworking, this situation means increased sensitivity to logistics, raw material origin, and metal costs. Thus, the market is entering a phase where competitive advantages are not just price-driven, but also based on supply chain transparency, compliance with standards, and the ability to react quickly to regulatory shifts.