According to an analysis by Vartis dated May 6, 2026, the Ukrainian rolled metal market started the year facing a simultaneous drop in consumption and a sharp rise in logistics costs. The company estimates that demand in the first quarter fell by 35–45% compared to the same period in 2025, depending on the region and segment. Significant inventory surpluses, high import levels, and energy restrictions created additional pressure, forcing operators to work in a low-margin environment.
Current Market Supply and Demand Dynamics
The first quarter of 2026 confirmed that the key factor for the rolled metal market is no longer just actual consumption, but also the availability of funding for large infrastructure and recovery projects. At the end of 2025, many traders built up substantial stocks in anticipation of a strong season start; however, weak demand quickly turned these volumes into a surplus factor. Consequently, supply exceeded the market's real needs, intensifying competition among suppliers and triggering further price pressure.
The most noticeable decline was recorded in the central regions and Kyiv, while Western Ukraine partially sustained the market through residential construction and specific tourism infrastructure projects. At the same time, there is no shortage of metal products, including imports. High import volumes combined with complex logistics only reinforce price pressure, making dumping one of the primary tools for winning customers.
Impact on the Steel Market and winox.ua Solutions
Since late February, logistics costs for both international and domestic transport rose by 15–20% in the first quarter. By April, market participants estimated increases reached 40–50% compared to the start of the year. Rising fuel prices, more complex routes, and general transportation risks directly increase the cost of metal products. For buyers, this necessitates more precise procurement planning, delivery scheduling, and inventory management.
In this environment, the value of partners capable of ensuring predictable shipments and stable cooperation terms increases. This is why suppliers like winox.ua, which handle rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals systematically, are becoming vital for industrial consumers to mitigate supply chain disruptions. Amid market volatility, winox.ua serves as a practical solution for companies requiring reliable deliveries and a more controlled procurement strategy.
Segments Supporting the Market and Future Outlook
The main driver of demand in the first quarter remained the construction sector, particularly residential projects in the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia regions. Conversely, infrastructure construction and major reconstruction projects have not yet become sources of large-scale metal consumption. The market is essentially waiting for the release of funding intended to stimulate procurement for bridges, roads, and municipal facilities.
According to the Vartis report, a significant volume of European recovery funding is expected in 2026–2027, with approximately 11 billion UAH earmarked for relevant sectors this year. A more active demand phase could begin in the second half of Q2 and continue through Q3. The base scenario currently assumes that overall rolled metal consumption in 2026 will remain roughly at last year's level without pronounced growth.
For the B2B segment, this means the coming months will remain a period of cautious decision-making. Companies should closely monitor the launch of infrastructure programs, logistics cost dynamics, and regional demand structures. These factors will determine whether the market moves from a waiting phase to real stabilization.