According to Bloomberg, citing a study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), the "green transition" of the global steel industry faces significant hurdles due to the high cost of cleaner technologies and insufficient investment in their scaling. Against this backdrop, coal-based capacity continues to rise, complicating the achievement of climate goals in the sector. For the metal market, this translates to a persistent long-term imbalance between environmental requirements, production costs, and the pace of technological modernization.
New Coal Capacity Outpaces Ecological Modernization
According to GEM, approximately 319 million tons of annual coal-fired blast furnace capacity are currently under development, representing a 5% increase over last year. Additionally, about 80 million tons of existing capacity are undergoing major overhauls, while planned decommissioning covers only 141 million tons. As a result, global blast furnace capacity is projected to grow by another 88 million tons by 2035.
The steel industry accounts for about 11% of global carbon emissions, with China and India remaining the primary sources of this burden. At the same time, greener technologies, such as electric arc furnaces (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) production, are developing more slowly than traditional coal-based routes. The share of EAF in global capacity grew by only 1 percentage point last year, reaching 34%, highlighting the limited pace of structural transformation in the industry.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions for Metal Consumers
For industrial consumers and traders, such dynamics mean that the steel market will continue to operate under mixed technological models for a long time, where price pressure, carbon regulation, and high capital intensity of modernization coexist. Importantly, China and India plan to build 86% of all new coal capacity, meaning their investment decisions largely determine the global trajectory of prices and supply. For companies purchasing rolled metal for production, construction, and infrastructure projects, this increases the importance of reliable supply channels and predictable product quality.
In these conditions, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, helps businesses mitigate operational risks through stable supplies and careful selection of manufacturers. Amid the technological restructuring of global metallurgy, access to certified products that meet modern quality and industrial application requirements becomes crucial. For B2B clients, this is not just a matter of purchasing metal, but an element of long-term cost planning, production continuity, and compliance with new market standards.
Decarbonization Continues but Requires More Investment
Despite the challenging landscape, certain countries and companies continue to adapt their strategies to the new environment. Specifically, Germany is allocating €5 billion to support energy-intensive industries in implementing low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions in the program for the first time. This indicates that state support is increasingly becoming a critical factor for launching real industrial change.
Meanwhile, major producers are already adjusting their expectations. ArcelorMittal has revised its long-term decarbonization strategy, acknowledging that the energy transition is proving more complex than previously anticipated. Thus, in the coming years, the market is likely to evolve not according to a scenario of rapid fossil fuel abandonment, but through a model of gradual transition, where investment, state support, and technology availability determine the pace of change.