According to the new OECD Steel Outlook 2026 report, global steel production overcapacity could rise to 745 million tons by 2028. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development notes that this volume will exceed the current steel production levels of OECD countries by 319 million tons. For the market, this signals a worsening imbalance between supply and demand, while consumption growth rates remain moderate.
Capacity Expansion and Key Market Risks
According to the report, global steelmaking capacity will increase by another 139 million tons, or 5.7% compared to 2025, by 2028. Meanwhile, demand is expected to grow by only about 0.9% annually, exacerbating the structural surplus. The majority of new capacity is being added outside OECD member nations, often supported by active government subsidies.
The OECD highlights the uneven playing field in the industry. In 2024, the average Chinese steel company received subsidies at a significantly higher asset ratio compared to producers in other countries. Against this background, steel capacity in OECD member nations decreased by 2.8 million tons between 2021 and 2025, with particularly noticeable declines in the UK and Japan.
Additional pressure stems from raw material market restrictions and energy costs. Currently, 42 countries impose scrap export restrictions, while rising energy prices driven by Middle East tensions push up production costs. According to OECD estimates, energy can account for up to 40% of steelmaking costs, which is already impacting investment decisions and delaying some low-carbon metallurgy projects.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For Ukrainian companies and metal consumers, this situation translates into higher price volatility, fiercer competition in export markets, and more complex procurement planning. While overcapacity traditionally squeezes producer margins, ongoing instability in raw materials and energy prevents the market from settling into a predictable pricing environment. Consequently, businesses increasingly value reliable suppliers capable of ensuring product range stability and consistent deliveries.
In this context, winox.ua serves as a key partner for industrial enterprises working with stainless steel, non-ferrous metals, and other rolled metal products. The company helps clients mitigate supply risks through systematic collaboration with verified manufacturers and a steadfast focus on stable commercial terms. For B2B buyers, this is particularly critical at a time when global imbalances simultaneously affect both pricing and the availability of specific items.
Given the OECD's findings, the coming years are likely to bring intensified trade disputes, industrial policy overhauls, and a growing emphasis on localized supply chains. For the Ukrainian market, this underscores the need for more precise inventory management, careful supplier selection, and a focus on products with predictable quality. Under these conditions, an expert approach to metal procurement becomes more than just an operational advantage—it turns into a vital component of enterprise resilience.