As reported by Oleksandr Kalenkov, President of the Ukrmetalurgprom association, citing an official letter from the OECD Steel Committee, the organization recognized Ukraine's nominal steelmaking capacity at 8 million tons per year in mid-March. This significant adjustment from the previously recorded 38.7 million tons holds both statistical and practical importance for foreign trade negotiations, specifically regarding EU restrictions and the CBAM mechanism. For international partners, the updated figures more accurately reflect the reality of the Ukrainian steel industry following the loss and destruction of several major enterprises.
Changes in the Assessment of Ukraine's Production Base
Nominal steelmaking capacity is a fundamental indicator for the global steel market, as it represents the theoretical annual output at full equipment utilization. International institutions rely on this metric when analyzing excess capacity, trade imbalances, and dumping risks. According to the data, Ukraine's capacity was estimated at 42.5 million tons in 2013, decreasing to 25.3 million tons after 2014, and falling further to 16.2 million tons after the full-scale invasion. Out of this volume, approximately 8.2 million tons have been effectively decommissioned and cannot be restored without massive investments, bringing the current realistic figure to 8 million tons.
Against the backdrop of 7.4 million tons produced in 2025, the utilization rate of Ukrainian capacity reaches 92-93%, significantly higher than the global average of 76%. This is a crucial argument in discussions about overcapacity, as the previous inflated estimates created a false impression that Ukraine could rapidly and drastically increase steel production. Consequently, trade partners could use those figures to justify protective measures. The OECD's statistical update reduces the ground for such interpretations.
Market Impact and Solutions from winox.ua
The OECD's adjustment is vital not only for major producers but for the entire metal product supply chain. When international regulators and buyers gain a more accurate understanding of the real capabilities of the Ukrainian steel industry, it strengthens exporters' negotiating positions, improves trade terms, and enhances market predictability. For companies purchasing rolled metal for manufacturing, construction, and engineering, industry data transparency is directly linked to contract planning, logistics, and inventory management. In these conditions, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, provides businesses with reliable supplies and professional support in a market sensitive to foreign trade decisions.
This correction is also significant in the context of price fluctuations and regulatory pressure caused by global overcapacity. Estimates suggest that global excess steelmaking capacity will reach approximately 630 million tons in 2026 and could grow to 720 million tons by 2027. Such a massive imbalance puts pressure on prices, intensifies competition, and influences trade defense decisions. For Ukrainian metal consumers, this highlights the need to work with suppliers capable of guaranteeing assortment stability, product quality, and predictable commercial terms.
Significance for EU Negotiations and CBAM
The overestimation of Ukraine's steelmaking capacity previously created reputational and negotiating risks for the country. In EU practice, the issue of global overcapacity is directly tied to the application of protective instruments and a broader approach to regulating imports of carbon-intensive products. If official statistics show a large gap between capacity and actual output, it can be interpreted as a potential for a sudden surge in exports. Therefore, bringing the numbers in line with reality is a vital step for Ukraine's position in its dialogue with the European Commission and other trade partners.
The OECD data update also matters for CBAM, where not only environmental parameters but also the general perception of the industry in Europe is critical for Ukrainian companies. The more accurately international institutions understand the actual scale of Ukrainian production, the stronger the argument for a balanced approach to restrictions and transition mechanisms. For the market, this signals a gradual restoration of correct international assessments of Ukrainian metallurgy. For industrial consumers and traders, it is a reason to closely monitor how statistical decisions transform into trade policy and supply conditions.