According to market data for the KORE 62% Fe index (Qingdao, CFR), between April 1–17, 2026, the average price of iron ore increased by 2.3% compared to March, reaching $108.78/t. As of April 17, quotes stood at $108.04/t, up 1.3% from mid-March levels. The primary driver of this growth was the recovery of steel production in China following the seasonal slump, though by mid-month, the market began showing signs of limited further upward potential.
Market Support and Resistance Factors
In early April, prices were supported by several factors, including expectations of increased pig iron production in China, a post-holiday surge in trading activity, and high energy prices that raised metallurgical production costs. This created a favorable backdrop for commodity markets and temporarily strengthened the upward trend.
However, by the middle of the first decade, the market started losing momentum. Domestic steel demand in China remains weak, leading steelmakers to react cautiously to rising raw material costs. Under these conditions, mills are optimizing their charge by shifting interest toward cheaper, lower-grade ores, which is widening the price spreads between different commodity classes.
Additional pressure is mounting from the supply side. The recovery of shipments from Australia following weather disruptions, combined with significant inventories at Chinese ports, limits the potential for a new price spike. Furthermore, the market is considering potential improvements in relations between Chinese consumers and major suppliers like BHP, which could enhance ore availability in the near term.
Impact on the Steel Market and winox.ua Solutions
For steel producers and consumers of metal products, rising iron ore prices exert direct pressure on the cost of pig iron, steel, and finished rolled products. Even a moderate increase in raw material quotes influences procurement strategies, especially when the market simultaneously faces energy price volatility and uneven demand for finished goods. For industrial enterprises, this highlights the importance of precise contract planning and supplier diversification.
In these conditions, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, provides clients with more predictable procurement terms and reliable deliveries. Amid raw material market fluctuations, price stability and the availability of a verified product range become critical for manufacturing and construction companies. This is particularly relevant for businesses operating with long production cycles that depend on the continuity of metal supply.
The market also notes that short-term ore price hikes do not always automatically translate into sustainable price increases for all rolled metal products. If steel consumption remains sluggish, producers may partially offset the pressure by adjusting their raw material mix or production volumes. Therefore, it is crucial for procurement specialists to evaluate not only exchange quotes but also the fundamental balance of supply and demand.
Forecast for the Second Half of April
During the second half of the month, the market is moving into a phase of increased volatility. On one hand, the seasonal ramp-up in Chinese steel smelting supports iron ore demand. On the other hand, a 7.6% month-on-month increase in imports in March and the resumption of sea shipments heighten the risks of oversupply.
Geopolitical factors are also playing a smaller role than they did at the beginning of the month. Following reports of de-escalation between the US and Iran, oil prices corrected, cooling sentiment across various commodity markets. Traders are increasingly focusing on fundamental indicators rather than short-term external signals.
Ultimately, the most likely scenario for the upcoming period remains a volatile market with a moderate upward trend. Support will be provided by seasonal demand and high production costs, but growth potential will continue to be capped by large inventories and weak steel consumption dynamics. For industrial companies, this necessitates a flexible procurement policy and careful monitoring of raw material indicators.