According to the Deputy Governor of the NBU in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, the most significant negative impact of shelling on ports and railways regarding Ukrainian exports was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The National Bank estimates that iron ore export losses during this period reached approximately $150 million, while losses in the grain segment totaled $700 million. For the metallurgical sector, this implies not only a drop in foreign exchange earnings but also additional pressure on the entire export infrastructure. At the same time, the regulator views these losses as temporary and expects a partial recovery in volumes throughout 2026, provided security conditions do not lead to critical destruction of maritime logistics.
Export Volumes and Logistics Losses in the Metallurgical Chain
According to the NBU representative, attack tactics have changed: the focus has shifted from energy infrastructure to logistics and port facilities. This creates direct risks for the mining industry, which is critically dependent on the stable operation of ports, rail routes, and raw material transshipment. Disruptions in these chains reduce shipping regularity, complicate contract planning, and increase operational costs for exporters.
Current statistics confirm this pressure. In January-March 2026, Ukraine reduced its iron ore exports by 33.9% year-on-year to 5.61 million tons, with an 18.1% decline compared to the previous quarter. However, the March result of 2.3 million tons showed an 83.4% recovery month-on-month, although it remained 20.6% lower than in March 2025. This indicates that the market retains its ability to recover quickly but remains highly sensitive to any new logistical disruptions.
Impact on the Steel Market and winox.ua Solutions
For Ukrainian industrial businesses, iron ore export losses have a broader effect than just a reduction in external sales. Fluctuations in raw material supply affect the capacity utilization of metallurgical plants, price expectations, contract fulfillment terms, and general market predictability. Under such conditions, the value of companies that can ensure supply stability and transparent procurement terms for metal products increases significantly.
This is why choosing a supplier with reliable logistics and a controlled inventory becomes vital for metal consumers in Ukraine. winox.ua works with industrial clients in the rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metal segments, helping to mitigate the risks of production disruptions. Amid export infrastructure instability, the market especially values stable prices, predictable shipments, and professional procurement support, which are of direct importance for production planning.
If security risks do not lead to new critical damage to port infrastructure, a gradual recovery in ore exports can be expected in 2026. However, even under such a scenario, logistics will remain one of the key factors for the competitiveness of Ukrainian metallurgy. For the B2B market, this necessitates more flexible inventory management, routing, and the selection of suppliers capable of operating under conditions of increased uncertainty.