According to the sixth annual Global Energy Monitor report, India accounts for over 60% of all new blast furnace steel production capacity worldwide, despite increasing global pressure to reduce emissions in the metallurgy sector. The organization estimates that 319 million tonnes per year of new blast furnace capacity is currently announced or under construction, a 5% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, official closure plans cover only 141 million tonnes of existing capacity, creating a path for net growth in the blast furnace segment until 2035.
New Project Volumes and the Decarbonization Reality Gap
Global Energy Monitor notes that an additional 80 million tonnes of blast furnace capacity worldwide are slated for modernization or life extension through capital repairs. As a result, global blast furnace capacity could see a net increase of 88 million tonnes by 2035, even as the industry declares a path toward reducing its carbon footprint. This highlights a significant gap between strategic climate goals and real-world investment decisions in the iron and steel industry.
India remains the key driver of this trend, as approximately 93% of the country’s new pig iron production capacity is based on blast furnace technology. Together with China, it accounts for 86% of all new blast furnace projects globally. However, only 5% of planned new blast furnace capacity in India has reached the actual construction stage, so some projects could still potentially be reconsidered in favor of lower-carbon solutions.
According to GEM, coal-based production accounts for about 88% of CO2 emissions in the steel industry, which itself generates approximately 11% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, the promotion of low-carbon technologies remains slow: the share of electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity worldwide grew from only 33% to 34% over the year. In the direct reduced iron (DRI) segment, only 2% of operating capacity uses green hydrogen as the primary reducing agent.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the global steel market, this dynamic means that the blast furnace production model will continue to exert significant influence on price trends, cost structures, and carbon supply risks for a long time. For companies, this is particularly important in the context of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), as the competitiveness of metal products increasingly depends not only on price but also on the origin of the metal, production technology, and verified environmental parameters. Consequently, business procurement strategies must account for long-term regulatory costs rather than just current price quotes.
In this context, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, helps industrial clients mitigate operational risks through reliable supplies and a meticulous selection of certified products. Amid tightening requirements for quality and material traceability, the company offers solutions that meet modern industrial consumption standards. For manufacturing and installation enterprises, this has practical significance, as the stability of specifications and documentation becomes an increasingly vital part of procurement.
The growth of blast furnace capacity in Asia could also impact global trade flows, particularly the balance of supply for semi-finished and finished products in export markets. If India realizes its plans to increase steelmaking capacity to 400 million tonnes by the 2035/2036 fiscal year, competition in foreign markets will intensify. Under these conditions, it is critical for metal consumers to work with suppliers like winox.ua, who can provide predictable quality, timely shipments, and professional material selection for specific production tasks.
What India’s Plans Mean for International Metallurgy
According to a draft government note, achieving the target of 400 million tonnes of steel will require capital investments of approximately 17 trillion rupees, or $183.41 billion. Furthermore, the country aims to more than double its steel exports to 20 million tonnes and reduce its dependence on coking coal imports from approximately 90% now to 80%. This points to a long-term industrial strategy where capacity expansion is combined with the goal of strengthening raw material and foreign trade resilience.
For the global metallurgical industry, this represents a continued period of contradiction, where the expansion of traditional blast furnace production occurs alongside declarations of decarbonization. The key question in the coming years will be the speed of the transition from carbon-intensive technologies to electric arc furnaces, DRI, and the use of low-carbon reducing agents. This speed will determine the future structure of costs, investments, and competitive advantages in the global steel market.