According to the Global Steel Scrap Supply and Demand Trends study by the Japan Iron Source Association, as reported by Japan Metal Daily, global steel scrap collection will reach 873 million tons by 2050. This is 31 million tons less than the previous estimate, yet the market still shows an upward trend in the long run. Compared to 2020, scrap generation is expected to grow by 36%, or 232 million tons, confirming the strategic role of recycled materials for global metallurgy.
Regional Scrap Supply Balance is Shifting
The updated JISF forecast shows that the center of scrap supply growth is gradually shifting toward developing countries. For these markets, excluding China, expectations have been raised to 370 million tons, 16 million tons more than the previous forecast. Meanwhile, the estimate for China was lowered to 311 million tons, and for developed economies to 193 million tons, reflecting a slowdown in mature markets.
This revision is primarily linked to new estimates for future steel consumption. In developing markets, the demand forecast was raised to 923 million tons—143 million tons higher than previously expected. For China, this figure was lowered to 621 million tons, and for developed countries to 257 million tons, indicating a structural shift in global metallurgy demand sources.
JISF also emphasizes that more than 85% of the world's scrap resources by 2050 will be consumed by the steel industry, primarily by electric arc furnace facilities. This means scrap will continue to be a critically important raw material for producing steel with a lower carbon footprint. For market participants, this is a signal to plan long-term raw material strategies and sourcing geography more carefully.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
The reduction in the long-term forecast does not negate the fundamental growth of scrap's role but points to potentially higher competition for resources in certain regions. For manufacturers and traders, this means that issues of raw material availability, price volatility, and supply stability are becoming increasingly vital. This is especially true for segments where the cost of metal is sensitive to fluctuations in the price of secondary raw materials and electric steelmaking.
In such an environment, the importance of a reliable metal products supplier grows for industrial consumers. The company winox.ua helps businesses mitigate procurement risks through stable supplies of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals for production needs. Amid long-term changes in the raw material market balance and potential price pressure, this becomes a key advantage for enterprises planning production several quarters ahead.
An additional factor is that in 2024, according to GMK Center, global scrap consumption decreased by 1% year-on-year to 460.6 million tons, while steel output decreased by only 0.7% to 1.55 billion tons. Such dynamics suggest that the role of scrap in the metallurgical cycle is temporarily weakening in some countries, although the overall long-term trend remains positive. For B2B companies, this means a need to combine short-term procurement flexibility with a long-term understanding of global raw material shifts.