According to Kallanish and Turkish Statistical Institute data, in May 2026, square billet prices in most regional markets rose by $10–20 per ton, but the upward trend began to weaken by mid-month. Towards the end of the period, prices in key hubs, particularly China and Turkey, started declining following drops in steel and raw material costs. The Gulf countries were the exception in monthly dynamics, where regional instability created a distinct, highly volatile environment.
Key Regions Demonstrated Diverse Price Dynamics
In the Black Sea market, average square billet quotations rose by $13 in May, reaching $483 per ton FOB, which is the highest since early 2025. In Turkey, domestic prices also increased, although demand remained subdued by the end of the month due to weak rebar sales and the upcoming Eid al-Adha holidays. An additional supporting factor for the local market remains the requirement for Turkish producers to source a portion of their steel raw materials domestically.
At the same time, billet imports to Turkey continue to increase sharply. According to TUIK, import volumes reached 548,000 tons in March, and grew by 73% year-on-year in the first quarter to 1.3 million tons. Russia, China, and the UAE remain the largest suppliers, with Indonesia and Malaysia also playing a significant role in import growth in March.
In ASEAN countries, the price situation remained unstable. Buyers in the Philippines and Indonesia held back from purchasing, anticipating further declines below the psychological level of $500 per ton CFR. In China, Tangshan quotations fluctuated within the range of $445–456 per ton throughout the month, with the market pressured by poor profitability of rolling mills and declining futures.
Impact on the Rolled Metal Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the long products market, this dynamic means production costs remain highly sensitive to short-term changes in billet prices. This is especially crucial for importers and consumers of steel products in Ukraine, as fluctuations in Turkey, the Black Sea region, and China directly affect purchasing targets. Amidst an unstable price trend, companies should plan their contracting timelines and warehouse inventory structures more carefully.
In such conditions, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal and industrial solutions, helps businesses minimize procurement risks through reliable supplies and a predictable approach to forming commercial offers. For B2B clients, this has practical value when the market quickly shifts from local growth to end-of-month correction. Service stability and a clear understanding of market dynamics become just as important as the metal price itself.
Special attention should be paid to the European segment. In Italy, average Ex-Works billet quotations increased by $18 at the end of May compared to late April, reaching $621 per ton. This confirms that even as Asian indicators weaken, the European market maintains its own pricing logic, which is vital to consider when procuring rolled steel for manufacturing and construction projects.
What This Means for Ukrainian Buyers in the Near Term
The current landscape indicates that the May price increase did not translate into a sustainable long-term trend. Major markets entered June with signs of caution, and future price movements will largely depend on the situation in China, raw material costs, and buyer activity after the holiday pause in the Middle East. For Ukrainian businesses, this highlights the need to respond swiftly to changing external indicators.
An additional reference point is the NBU macro-forecast, which expects the average price of steel billets in 2026 to stand at $487.7 per ton FOB Ukraine, with subsequent moderate growth in 2027–2028. This provides a baseline signal for manufacturers and traders: the market remains volatile but retains growth potential in the medium term. Therefore, procurement strategies in the rolled metal segment should rely not only on current spot prices but also on a broader balance of demand, imports, and raw material factors.