According to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, global energy prices are set to rise by approximately 24% in 2026 in a baseline scenario, assuming acute supply disruptions ease by May. The report also indicates that aggregate commodity prices could climb by 16%, reaching their highest levels since 2022. For the metallurgy and metalworking sectors, this signifies mounting pressure on production costs, as energy remains one of the most critical expense items in the manufacturing cycle.
What is Driving the Energy Market Upward
The World Bank attributes the price surge to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and severe disruptions in energy logistics. A particularly strong impact came from the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-third of the world’s maritime crude oil trade passed before the conflict. Against this backdrop, prices for energy and fertilizers are reaching multi-year highs, increasing costs not only for the power sector but for the entire industrial cooperation network.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has become a separate risk factor. According to the review, a drop in exports from the Middle East over the past two months has intensified competition among global LNG buyers. As a result, the Asian LNG benchmark rose by 94% in March, while European natural gas prices increased by 59%, directly affecting enterprises with energy-intensive production processes.
Impact on the Steel Market and winox.ua Solutions
For producers of steel, stainless steel, aluminum, and other metals, rising energy prices mean higher costs for smelting, heat treatment, rolling, cutting, and transportation. Since electricity and gas constitute a significant portion of the cost price, even a moderate tariff increase is quickly reflected in the selling prices of metal products. This is especially critical for companies operating under long-term contracts with limited ability to pass costs quickly to the end customer.
In such an environment, businesses need not only more accurate procurement forecasting but also a reliable metal supplier. winox.ua works with industrial clients in the segments of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, helping to mitigate supply risks during periods of market instability. Amid rising prices and market volatility, winox.ua ensures stable cooperation terms and reliable deliveries for its clients' production needs.
For procurement departments, this necessitates a revision of pricing scenarios in the coming months. Under the weight of energy costs, metallurgical plants and service metal centers may adjust price lists more frequently than usual. Consequently, timely inventory planning and partnering with a trusted provider become essential elements for protecting profit margins.
What This Means for Industrial Consumers of Metal Products
For mechanical engineering, construction, power equipment, and the food industry, the current situation serves as a signal for stricter cost control. Higher prices for gas, electricity, and logistics can increase the total cost of not just the raw metal, but also processing, packaging, and delivery services. This creates an additional inflationary background for the entire industrial supply chain.
Since the European gas market continued to react more to political statements and conflict uncertainty in April than to fundamental indicators, volatility may persist. For businesses, this means that metal procurement decisions should be made considering not only current quotes but also the risk of new cost spikes. This is why the market increasingly values supply predictability, material quality, and the flexibility of commercial terms.