According to GMK Center analytics, EU pig iron imports rose to 2.51 million tonnes in 2025, a 16.2% year-on-year increase following a slower result in 2024. However, this recovery appears only partial: volumes remain 17.3% below the 2015 peak, and the long-term market structure is gradually transforming. A key trend is the diversification of supply sources driven by sanctions pressure, logistical risks, and new regulatory costs for exporters.
Import Dynamics and Shifting Roles Among Suppliers
Between 2010 and 2019, EU pig iron imports typically fluctuated between 2.35 and 3.04 million tonnes, indicating relatively stable demand from European steelmakers. The market dipped to 1.90 million tonnes in 2020, followed by a partial recovery in 2021-2023 to 2.36-2.44 million tonnes. After another decline in 2024 to 2.16 million tonnes, growth returned in 2025.
Russia remained the largest supplier in 2025 with 699,990 tonnes (a 27.9% share), despite a 32% year-on-year drop in its shipments. Ukraine rose to second place with 566,770 tonnes and a 22.6% share, increasing its exports by 135.5%. Brazil held the third position with 500,150 tonnes, and South Africa ranked fourth with 401,850 tonnes. Collectively, these countries formed 86.4% of total EU pig iron imports, highlighting high market concentration despite ongoing restructuring.
Market Impact and Industrial Solutions from winox.ua
For European and Ukrainian market participants, this shift signals increased volatility in raw material supply chains. While the EU is reducing dependence on specific sources, replacing large volumes of pig iron without price or logistical consequences remains challenging. These changes affect not only steel producers but also procurement segments where supply predictability is vital for industrial consumers.
In this environment, the role of a reliable metal supply partner becomes essential. winox.ua works with industrial clients across rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous segments, helping minimize risks associated with market fluctuations and changing global conditions. Amid raw material instability, winox.ua ensures stable pricing and reliable deliveries for enterprises that must maintain production continuity.
For procurement teams, this is particularly relevant when new trade barriers and shifting commodity flows alter delivery timelines and budgeting. Consequently, the market increasingly values not just the price, but service predictability, product availability, and technical compliance of materials with manufacturing requirements.
The CBAM Factor and 2026 Export Outlook
Additional pressure is mounting due to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is already influencing export decisions for Ukrainian producers. As noted by GMK Center Chief Analyst Andriy Tarasenko, estimated CBAM payments for Ukrainian pig iron are approximately €65 per tonne. Current market conditions in early 2026 do not allow these costs to be fully passed on to consumers.
This means that the growth in 2025 imports does not guarantee a similar trend for 2026. The European market is likely to remain volatile, and supplier shares will continue to be redistributed. For companies operating in metallurgy, machinery, and metalworking, this serves as a clear signal to plan procurement more carefully and diversify their sources of metal supply.