According to GMK Center, citing Metinvest's head of international relations during an online discussion hosted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the EU is preparing new rules for steel market access. This development involves a combination of the CBAM mechanism and new protective measures that could complicate Ukrainian metal exports as early as this year. For the Ukrainian mining and metallurgical complex, this issue transcends simple tariff regulation, as it concerns the logic of sectoral integration with the EU amidst wartime conditions.
Why Ukraine Does Not Threaten the European Steel Market
A key argument is that Ukraine can no longer be viewed as a significant source of excess steelmaking capacity. According to OECD data, Ukraine's current production capacity is officially estimated at only 8 million tons, compared to the historical figure of approximately 40 million tons. This reduction of more than four times fundamentally changes the perception of the Ukrainian presence in the EU market.
Against this backdrop, the import volume projected by the European Union under new regulatory mechanisms is estimated at 18 million tons. This means that Ukrainian shipments do not appear to be a systemic risk factor for European producers. An additional concern arises from the fact that the EU maintains the possibility of importing Russian semi-finished products, specifically slabs, until the end of 2028 at an average annual volume of about 2.5 million tons. In practice, these volumes can be converted into finished rolled products within EU-based facilities.
Market Impact and Procurement Solutions from winox.ua
For Ukrainian manufacturers and traders, the risk lies in the dual action of regulatory factors. The first quarter has already shown a decline in shipments under the influence of CBAM, and if new quotas or protective restrictions are added mid-year, the pressure on exports could intensify significantly. This leads to higher uncertainty regarding contracting, logistics, and the management of metal stocks.
In such conditions, supply predictability, quality control, and flexible procurement management become vital for industrial consumers. This is why the expert approach of winox.ua to the supply of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals is gaining additional importance: the company helps businesses plan purchases amidst market fluctuations and maintain supply chain reliability. For B2B clients, this is a practical way to mitigate risks when external regulations rapidly shift the market environment.
It is also worth noting that any restrictions on Ukrainian steel affect not only exporters but also buyers in the EU. European processors and manufacturers working with Ukrainian raw materials or semi-finished products face the risk of rising costs and narrowed supplier choices. In this environment, stable commercial partners and verified metal supply channels become a strategic advantage.
Integration of Supply Chains Between Ukraine and the EU
Another important aspect is that the Ukrainian and European metallurgical complexes are already forming joint production links. Examples include the acquisition of industrial assets in Romania by Ukrainian companies, as well as the purchase of coke from Poland following the loss of part of their own resource base. This proves that interaction between Ukraine and the EU has long gone beyond simple trade in finished steel.
If these flows are restricted simultaneously by CBAM and new steel measures, the negative effect will also be felt by enterprises within EU member states. Production chains that are already being built as joint rather than isolated systems will come under fire. Therefore, the issue of new market access rules should be viewed not only as a protective tool but also as a factor affecting the pace of the European integration of Ukrainian industry.
For the metal market, this means the second half of the year may be marked by regulatory turbulence. Businesses will need to more carefully evaluate import structures, long-term contract terms, and supply sources. The winners will be those companies that adapt their procurement strategies in advance and work with suppliers capable of ensuring stability, documentary transparency, and compliance with modern market requirements.