According to ICE, EU carbon allowance futures (EUA, December 2026 contract) are trading between €74-77 per tonne in May, mirroring levels from late April. Carbon Pulse highlights trader reactions to leaked benchmark proposals for free allocation, while Reuters previously noted a downward revision in mid-term price forecasts. For the metallurgy and energy-intensive sectors, these dynamics are vital as they directly impact costs, export margins, and pricing strategies.
What Drives Current EUA Market Trends
The average EUA price in April was €74.04 per tonne, a 5.7% increase from March. In May, market conditions are shaped by volatile energy prices, Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, and expectations regarding the European Emissions Trading System review. Specifically, on May 6, quotes rose to €76 per tonne compared to €73 at the start of the week.
In late April, analysts polled by Reuters significantly lowered their EU carbon market price forecasts for the coming years. They now anticipate an average price of €80.61 per tonne in 2026 and €93.29 in 2027, down from higher January estimates. Experts suggest that political decisions affecting quota supply, reduced speculative positions, and expectations of further regulatory intervention remain key factors this year.
EU ETS Updates and Impact on Industry and winox.ua
On May 11, the European Commission presented updated EU ETS benchmarks for 2026-2030, currently open for public consultation and discussion with member states. The proposal includes a higher volume of free allowances for industry in the upcoming years, potentially saving companies around €4 billion in CO2 emission costs. On average, free quotas are expected to cover about 75% of industrial sector emissions.
For metallurgical companies, processors, and traders, this represents a partial easing of cost pressures but does not eliminate the need for careful metal procurement planning and future cost assessments. With emission costs remaining a significant factor in the price of steel and semi-finished products, supply predictability and budget control are essential. This is why winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal and stainless steel for industrial clients, focuses on reliable deliveries, market-justified pricing, and supporting B2B customers during periods of price volatility.
What New Signals Mean for Steel Exporters
The benchmark updates complement the amendment to the EU ETS Market Stability Reserve submitted by the European Commission on April 1. Furthermore, a broader review of the EU emissions trading system is scheduled for July 2026 to further modernize the framework. Consequently, the regulatory environment for producers of steel, ferroalloys, and metal products in Europe remains dynamic.
A separate signal for the global market was the official launch of an open coalition on carbon market compliance on May 7, involving the EU, Brazil, and China. This initiative aims to strengthen cooperation in monitoring, reporting, verification, and carbon accounting methodologies, with New Zealand and Germany also joining as initial participants. For Ukrainian exporters and metal consumers, this underscores the growing importance of transparent carbon accounting, adaptation to European rules, and the timely revision of commercial strategies.