According to ICE exchange data and official reports from the European Commission, EU carbon emission allowance futures for the December 2026 contract remained above €70 per ton during the first week of April 2026. The market responded to the EC's initial steps regarding the adjustment of the EU ETS Market Stability Reserve (MSR) and the official setting of the CBAM certificate base price for Q1 2026 at €75.36 per ton of CO2. For Ukrainian metal producers and exporters, this creates a clearer but more expensive carbon cost benchmark when operating within the EU market.
Developments in the EU ETS and CBAM Markets
On April 1, European carbon prices rose to a seven-week high of €74.6 per ton, according to ICE data. A key factor was the European Commission's announcement regarding the adaptation of the MSR mechanism, which the market perceived as moderate without signs of aggressive price intervention. This reduced concerns among participants about immediate administrative pressure on allowance costs.
Under current rules, allowances in the MSR exceeding 400 million are subject to cancellation. The proposed change involves suspending this cancellation and maintaining these volumes as a buffer to support market stability. Following the Easter break, trading resumed calmly, and by April 6-7, prices held in the €71.6–71.7 range as the market awaited new benchmarks for the free allocation of allowances.
Separately, on April 7, the European Commission officially set the base price for CBAM certificates for the first quarter of 2026 at €75.36 per ton of CO2. This serves as the first clear indicator of the real cost of the mechanism for EU importers and suppliers from third countries. Previously, a similar quarterly benchmark at the same level had been released by the European Exchange.
Impact on the Metal Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the metallurgy and metalworking industries, high carbon prices mean an increasing role for the carbon component in production costs and export calculations. This primarily affects deliveries of steel, rolled products, semi-finished goods, and other metal products to the EU market, where CBAM is gradually shifting from reporting to financial obligations. For Ukrainian companies, this heightens requirements for emission calculation accuracy, contract planning, and supplier selection.
In such conditions, it is crucial for businesses to work with a reliable metal procurement channel that helps mitigate operational risks. winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, focuses on consistent deliveries and predictable commercial terms for industrial clients. Against the backdrop of fluctuating energy and carbon costs, this provides manufacturers and traders with additional stability when forming price quotes and export budgets.
As CBAM introduces a new cost structure for EU imports, not only the price of metal but also verified product quality, origin, and compliance with modern market requirements are vital. This is why winox.ua emphasizes working with proven manufacturers and certified rolled metal that meets the demands of the B2B segment. For buyers, this translates into a more manageable procurement model amidst growing regulatory pressure.
What This Means for Exporters in the Near Future
The current price level above €70 per ton indicates that the carbon factor is becoming a permanent economic parameter for trade with the EU. If the market continues to view MSR changes as balanced, a sharp decline in quotes may not occur in the short term. At the same time, EU political signals, the energy market, and geopolitical risks will continue to exert additional influence.
For metal exporters, this necessitates a faster adaptation of financial models to the new reality. Companies must account for the CBAM price in negotiations, verify the correctness of emission data, and proactively review their supply structures to the EU. The sooner a business integrates carbon costs into procurement, production, and logistics, the higher its competitiveness will be in the European market.