As reported during the roundtable "Impact of CBAM on the Ukrainian Economy and Steel Sector in 2026–2030" organized by GMK Center, the European Commission applied the CBAM mechanism to Ukraine without any exemptions. According to ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, this has already led to additional costs of $60–$90 per ton, order cancellations, and a functional loss of part of the EU market access. The new regulations hit the long products segment particularly hard, which was one of the key areas of Ukrainian exports to Europe.
What Exactly Changed for Ukrainian Steel Producers
According to data from the CEO of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, the company shipped about 920,000 tons of long products to the EU in 2025 and planned to supply 1.2–1.25 million tons in 2026. After European customers learned about the additional CBAM payment, all orders for the first quarter of 2026—totaling approximately 300,000 tons—were canceled. For the enterprise, this means not only the loss of an export channel but also the inability to quickly redirect such volumes to alternative markets.
The situation is complicated by wartime factors that have been pressuring the cost of Ukrainian steel for several years. These include power outages, electricity prices higher than in Europe, and a shortage of qualified personnel. Against the backdrop of these problems, the company stopped its blooming mill in January 2026 and closed its casting and mechanical shops, while at least 3,400 jobs were cut in the first quarter.
Impact on the Metal Market and Practical Business Solutions from winox.ua
For the Ukrainian metal market, the consequences of CBAM extend far beyond a single enterprise. Metallurgy forms a significant share of the country's GDP and exports, so narrowing access to the EU market increases risks for the entire supply chain: from steel production to distribution and final industrial consumption. Additional pressure is also created by rising imports of cheaper products from Turkey and China, intensifying competition in the domestic market.
In such conditions, supply stability, price predictability, and material quality become critically important for industrial consumers. This is why the market is increasingly turning to suppliers capable of providing reliable service and transparent product origin. Winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, focuses on stable supplies for manufacturing enterprises that need procurement continuity even amidst regulatory and price turbulence.
For businesses, this necessitates revising procurement strategies, diversifying metal sources, and more carefully evaluating the total cost of material, including logistics, duties, and delivery times. Amidst changes in foreign trade, the role of professional distributors is only growing. This is especially relevant for enterprises using long products, stainless steel, and specialty items for mechanical engineering, construction, and the processing industry.
Socio-Economic Risks and Development Scenarios
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih emphasizes that without a delay or exemptions regarding CBAM, Ukrainian producers could lose access to the EU market within five years. The company also points to significant social consequences for Kryvyi Rih, where the plant is a key employer and taxpayer. For single-industry towns, further production cuts could escalate into a systemic problem of employment and budget sustainability.
Industry representatives are proposing at least a three-year delay in CBAM application for Ukrainian exporters. Such an approach, in their view, would allow for the accumulation of resources for modernization and the transition to greener production without losing core sales markets. For now, the industrial sector operates under high uncertainty, and the key task for all market participants remains maintaining operational resilience and controlling metal and raw material costs.