According to a study and analytical commentary published by GMK Center on April 2, 2026, the CBAM mechanism has already become a significant trade barrier for Ukrainian producers of long products and semi-finished steel. Analysts estimate that the competitiveness of Ukrainian metallurgy in the EU market is noticeably declining, and the total effect on the economy could be much greater than previously assumed by European institutions. Since metallurgy accounts for 7.2% of Ukraine's GDP when considering related supply chains, the impact of CBAM extends far beyond a single industry.
Assessment of CBAM Impact on Production, Exports, and GDP
GMK Center emphasizes that CBAM should be viewed not just as a change in trade conditions but as a factor affecting postwar recovery, investment attractiveness, and Ukraine's integration into European industrial chains. According to the center's calculations, the impact of CBAM on the steel sector alone could lead to a loss of 2.1% of Ukraine's GDP by 2030. This significantly exceeds the European Commission's estimate of 0.01%, which was used to reject Ukraine's request for a postponement of the mechanism.
Analysts also point out that while the consequences in 2026–2028 may remain relatively manageable, risks increase sharply in 2029–2030. In such a scenario, Ukraine could lose two out of five currently operating steel plants. The reason is not only the regulatory burden itself but also a deep investment deficit exacerbated by the war, infrastructure destruction, and high energy costs.
Before the full-scale war, large metallurgical plants had their own decarbonization roadmaps, but most of these projects were frozen. To modernize the existing capacity of the mining and metallurgical complex, GMK Center estimates that at least an additional €12 billion is needed. At the same time, without the restoration of the energy system and access to affordable low-carbon energy, "green" steel production in Ukraine remains a limited scenario.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the Ukrainian metal roll market, the consequences of CBAM mean increased pressure on export channels, a revision of pricing models, and the growing importance of stable domestic supplies. In these conditions, it is crucial for businesses to work with suppliers who can ensure procurement predictability and respond flexibly to changing market conditions. This is where companies like winox.ua hold practical value, maintaining reliable supplies of metal roll, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals for Ukraine's manufacturing and construction enterprises.
Amid rising regulatory and logistical risks, winox.ua can serve as a pillar for clients in terms of supply stability and maintaining predictable commercial terms. This is particularly important for companies involved in long production cycles, metal structures, mechanical engineering, and energy projects. When external markets become more complex, effective inventory management and access to high-quality metal within the country become critical factors for competitiveness.
Material quality is also of particular importance. In an environment of tightening environmental and technical requirements, winox.ua focuses on certified metal products and careful selection of manufacturers, meeting B2B client expectations for reliability and compliance with modern standards. For the market, this means lower operational risks and better preparedness for the new requirements of the European industrial environment.
Why the Postponement Issue Remains Relevant
GMK Center emphasizes that legal grounds for a CBAM postponement for Ukraine existed within the EU, yet the Ukrainian request was rejected. According to analysts, the decision was based on underestimated economic impact assessments and therefore requires revision. The center cites the already recorded drop in exports in the early months of 2026 as an additional argument.
The key problem, according to this logic, is the lack of sufficient funding for decarbonization. The grants and loan guarantees provided under the Ukraine Facility do not cover the real needs of industry and energy. Without a comprehensive approach that combines climate requirements with investment support, CBAM risks becoming not an incentive for modernization but a factor in accelerated deindustrialization.
For Ukrainian industrial businesses, this means the need to closely monitor EU regulatory decisions, diversify sales markets, and strengthen local supply chains. The coming years will show whether Ukraine can combine its export presence in the EU with a realistic model for metallurgical modernization. For now, CBAM remains one of the primary external challenges for the entire industry.