According to Politico, citing statements from Ukrainian steelmakers and participants at the GMK Center industrial roundtable, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is already prompting European customers to cancel orders for Ukrainian steel. For the industry, this creates additional risk at a time when enterprises are operating under wartime conditions, energy restrictions, and personnel shortages. Since the European Union remains the key market for Ukrainian metallurgy, the effect of CBAM extends far beyond individual contracts, affecting the export revenue of the entire country.
Current Market Situation and Why It Is Critical
According to data shared at the GMK Center roundtable, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih reports an almost immediate market reaction to the new carbon levies. After buyers learned of the additional burden of $60-90 per tonne, the company lost all orders for the first quarter of 2026, totaling approximately 300,000 tonnes. This forced the plant to halt specific production sites, including blooming mills and the foundry-mechanical plant.
A similar assessment was provided by the Metinvest group, which emphasizes that Ukrainian producers operate in significantly more difficult conditions than their European competitors. Formally, CBAM follows an environmental logic; however, in practice, it also strengthens a protective barrier for external steel suppliers. This is particularly sensitive for Ukraine, as the EU is the largest market for metal products, with Poland alone accounting for about a third of shipments.
Additional long-term risk is confirmed by a GMK Center study: by 2030, the mechanism could reduce exports of ferrous metallurgy products from Ukraine by 2.5 million tonnes. The cumulative impact on the national economy is estimated at minus 2.1% of GDP, significantly exceeding the European Commission's earlier estimates. For producers, this means not only a loss of margin but also harder decisions regarding capacity utilization, modernization, and investment.
Impact on the Metal Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the rolled metal market, this situation implies higher volatility in European supply chains, a revision of procurement policies, and increased requirements for metal origin transparency. Some buyers are already including additional carbon costs in contracts, while others are delaying purchases until clearer rules and clarifications emerge. Consequently, businesses need suppliers who can quickly adapt nomenclature, logistics, and pricing conditions to new regulatory realities.
In this context, winox.ua, as a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, remains a vital partner for industrial clients requiring predictable supplies and quality control. Amidst regulatory pressure and unstable demand, the market especially values stable commercial terms, technical consultation, and the availability of certified products. This is why companies with long production cycles are increasingly focusing on reliable metal supply channels.
Furthermore, it should be noted that CBAM is pushing customers to evaluate not only price but also the future compliance of materials with environmental and documentary requirements. For the B2B segment, this means a growing role for suppliers who carefully select manufacturers and offer metal products that meet modern standards. This approach helps reduce operational risks even during periods of sharp changes in external markets.
Solutions Expected by the Industry from the European Union
Ukrainian steelmakers are calling for a temporary exemption from CBAM or the introduction of transitional support mechanisms. Their argument is based on the fact that enterprises are already operating under force majeure conditions, and the sudden introduction of a full carbon burden accelerates the loss of customers. It is critically important for the industry to gain time to adapt to the new rules without losing base export positions in the EU.
Among possible solutions, the idea of directing potential CBAM payments for Ukrainian steel into special accounts for the subsequent modernization of enterprises is being discussed. Such an approach could simultaneously support the decarbonization of Ukrainian industry and create additional demand for European technologies. If a compromise is not found, the pressure on exports, production, and related metal market segments is likely to intensify.