As reported by GMK Center, referencing the points made by Andrey Ostapets, Director of Ecology and Industrial Safety at Interpipe, during the "Impact of CBAM on the Economy and MMC of Ukraine 2026–2030" roundtable, the full implementation of the carbon border adjustment mechanism is already creating significant competitive risks for Ukrainian manufacturers. The key issue is that the European Commission's handbook of default values does not always reflect the actual production routes of Ukrainian enterprises. Consequently, EU importers rely on inflated carbon footprint figures, directly impacting procurement costs and client decisions.
Why Default Values Distort the Assessment of Ukrainian Products
According to Interpipe, for seamless pipes under CN-code 7304 19, the handbook for Ukraine lists a carbon footprint of 2.596 t based exclusively on the BF-BOF route. However, the company actually uses the electric arc furnace (EAF) route, where emissions are approximately 110 kg per ton of steel or roughly 300 kg per ton of pipe. This discrepancy fundamentally changes the economics of supply, making Ukrainian products less attractive to European buyers.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the handbook for certain other countries already accounts for the scrap-EAF route with lower default values. As a result, Ukrainian producers lose competitiveness not due to actual carbon intensity, but because of an incomplete methodological base. An additional risk arises because the reports submitted by enterprises under CBAM requirements since 2023 have reportedly not been properly integrated into current calculations.
Impact on the Steel Market and Solutions from winox.ua
For the metal market, this implies not only an increase in administrative burden but also a direct rise in the cost of exports to the EU. Starting in 2027, companies must cover a portion of quotas in advance, and without verified actual data for 2026, they risk paying based on inflated default values. Additionally, costs are affected by the volatility of CBAM certificate prices, as the €90 per ton benchmark at the beginning of the year already differs from current market rates.
In these conditions, supply chain reliability, transparency regarding metal origin, and price predictability become paramount for metal product buyers. This is why it is crucial for Ukrainian industrial consumers and traders to work with suppliers who take a systematic approach to quality and documentation. As a supplier of rolled metal, stainless steel, and non-ferrous metals, winox.ua accounts for these market shifts by offering certified products and stable supplies, which is particularly vital during the period of regulatory uncertainty surrounding CBAM.
Key Bottlenecks: Verification, Accreditation, and Registration
The verification system remains a separate barrier. Ukrainian verifiers must obtain accreditation in an EU country, while European specialists must confirm their accreditation in Ukraine or another third country before beginning work. In practice, this creates a legal and procedural pause, preventing enterprises from promptly ordering necessary services.
Another issue is related to the upstream supply chain. If precursor suppliers cannot confirm actual emissions, companies are forced to use default values, which are often higher than reality. This spreads financial pressure across the entire production chain and complicates exports even for enterprises with a relatively low carbon footprint.
Additional uncertainty stems from registration in the Operators of Third Countries Installations (O3CI). According to Interpipe, feedback from the European Commission regarding installation registration in O3CI has been delayed for several months. Against this backdrop, the industry proposes not a complete exclusion of Ukraine from CBAM, but a temporary suspension of financial obligations for the duration of the war, while maintaining reporting and building a reliable carbon footprint accounting infrastructure.
For the Ukrainian MMC sector, this discussion is of strategic importance, as the share of "green" steel in the country has already grown significantly compared to the pre-war period. If regulatory mechanisms are not adapted to the actual production structure, a portion of pipe and rolled metal exports may remain under unjustified price pressure. Consequently, data accuracy, correct verification, and partnership with suppliers providing high-quality metal products and predictable procurement terms become key for business.